I love fivethrityeight.com. The statistics behind this polling average website/forecast model is ingenious and helpful to figure out the state of the presidential election. (They also have a good podcast once or twice a week). One takeaway I find helpful they repeat a lot: no one poll is definitive. Look at a wide range of polls and then weight by reliability. While Biden has a 77% chance as of Saturday, Sept 26, that is not 100%. In fact, Trump had a 29% chance to win in 2016 on election night, according to 538.com. While that seems like a mistake, the mistake was in the polls, not 538's forecast algorithm. After looking through the entire forecast (article link), what stands out to you about the state of the presidential race?
After looking through the entire forecast, I've noticed that after the first of three presidential debates, Biden is now favored to win a little more than he was before, perhaps not because of what Biden said, but more because of the things Trump had to say (or didn’t say, specifically about white supremacy). While looking at all the possible outcome maps at the top of the page, it’s interesting to see the vast range of possible outcomes, because it just goes to show that you truly cannot predict for sure who’s going to win, because so many states could change from red to blue or vice versa (besides some states that never change, like the 3 Democratic stronghold states of California, Illinois, and New York), highlighting the utmost importance of voting, and specifically, a greater young voter turnout, to tip the polls in our favor; the presidential election could always go one way or another, despite predictions.
ReplyDeleteAfter looking at the entire forecast, I agree with with Lauren Chu stating that one reason why trump may lose the elections may be because of his comments on white supremacy. Although it was quite intriguing and shocking to see that Biden was heavily favored to win the election over Trump. I believe a reason why Trump is losing to Biden is because of the points Biden is making that Trump is not and vise versa. Also another possible reason why he's unlikely to win according to the site is because of the opinions people have toward Trump compared to Biden. However despite the odds which trump faced last year he still prevailed in winning the election despite the conspiracies behind the election that year. However the point i'm trying to make is that not discrediting the article of course but anything is possible despite what the numbers may show.
ReplyDeleteI definitely agree with Troy that anything is possible, especially looking at the 2016 election. And this election will be even more suspenseful and chaotic because the large amount of mail-in ballots means it will take longer to get a result. I also agree with Lauren that Trump's "stand back, stand by" comment hurt his chances, because it has caused divisions within the Republican Party, as many Republicans have pressured Trump to condemn white supremacy and made it clear that they do condemn it. However, I don't think that it will cause many of his supporters to turn against him, because he has said these kinds of things before ("fine people on both sides"). Another important development that 538 highlights is Trump and Melania testing positive for the coronavirus after Trump claimed that the virus is under control and the end is in sight. This could undercut his pandemic message and alter his campaign, as he will have to quarantine during a critical period before the election.
ReplyDeleteWith so many developments and massive stories of the past year, Trumps polls haven't really changed. So I agree Ella, Trump probably won't close the gap before the election (even though it's still possible).
DeleteBiden does seem to have the lead right now but anything could happen. Last election, Hillary was supposed to win and that did not happen. This year's election already has tons of controversy. The President has said multiple times that the mail in ballots have huge amounts of fraud and he may not even accept the results of the election. Many ballots will go uncounted with the problems related the US mail. In addition, thousands of ballots will likely also go uncounted due to small human errors in the ballots. Especially with Trump just getting the corona virus anything could happen. For now he must stop his campaigning across the country and with all he has said his message may be fading. I personally think that Biden may win but anything could happen.
ReplyDeleteMany more important events are still to come as the vice president debate is coming as well as, if possible more presidential debates. Trumps condition will heavily affect his chances as being reelected.
DeleteOne part which stood out to me was the 5% chance "the election hinges on a recount," which stood out to me because I have been paying attention to the possibility of a close or contested election since reading the Atlantic piece which mentioned this concerning possibility (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/). Trump has expressed a refusal to commit to accepting the election results, and if the election is close, this could lead to troubling complications with unfounded accusations of voter fraud. Something other people seem to be mentioning in their comments is about how Trump won last year, despite predictions Clinton would win, which means that Trump could win again. I don't think that this means we need to distrust the polling though. FiveThirtyEight writes (in another article reflecting on the 2016 election) "Polls showed an uncertain and volatile race with Clinton as a modest favorite and Trump with a real chance." A different, though related issue, may be that media coverage of the 2016 election underestimated Trump's chances.
ReplyDeleteAgreeing with the majority of the discussion so far, anything can happen and I think that is quite maddening to say the least that our nation is predictably unpredictable with evidence from the 2016 election and these polls; 40,000 simulations. From the forecasts, I found the snake chart interesting because it shows you who is most likely to vote for which candidate and to see the states have very different opinions that are almost regional or sectional, it reminds me of the north and south in the 1800s because each state has a different majority of votes from their people which reflects how our nation is still made up of a spectrum of opinions yet we have still fortunately been able to stay united. Additionally there are many uncontrolled variables surrounding the election which adds pressure to the results which can make or break America as we know her.
ReplyDeleteI like the snake chart too. I wonder which state will be the tipping point state. Looks like Pennsylvania. My sister lives in Texas and I'm closely following that state. It looks less red every election. All the major cities of Texas are blue while the rural and suburban areas are more red.
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